England – Ukraine Preview: Freerollin’

In the last few days I have been diligently looking over English media outlets, trying to figure out what the Brits think of their Eastern European opponents. The two football teams have a lot in common, you know. Both sides reached the quarterfinals of the 2006 World Cup, and both failed to qualify for last summer’s European Championship. But the conclusion I came to is that other than the existence of Sheva, the Brits don’t know a thing about us. The main story lines seem to be “Shevchenko is coming to Wembley to prove he’s not rubbish” or “Frank Lampard: Andriy is a fantastic player, better teammate” or “John Terry texts Sheva, seeks fashion advice.” What I think would be really funny this April Fools Day is if Ukraine comes into the Three Lions den and walks away with a result built on the shoulders of players those old farts on Sky Sports have never heard of, while Sheva sulks on the bench, which is the one thing he apparently learned in England.

In many respects Wednesday’s World Cup 2010 qualifier at Wembley is a “nothing to lose” proposition for the Ukraine national team. Their opponent has been anointed as the expected winner of Group Six by fans and pundits alike. And why not, with England having claimed maximum points, including a convincing 4-1 with in Zagreb last fall, almost halfway through the campaign. So common logic puts Ukraine in a battle with Croatia for second place and a spot in the playoff. Both sides are on 7 points, 5 back of England, but Ukraine has a match in hand, and a loss tomorrow does no serious damage to their chances of advancing. By contrast, even a single point earned against the leaders would put the pressure squarely on Croatia, who would have to match the feat or beat Ukraine in June to gain the upper hand. And if Ukraine learns from Croatia’s mistakes, a draw is certainly achievable.

England’s win in Croatia was hailed as the rebirth of the team, with much of the praise heaped on current savior Fabio Capello. But I would argue that most of the credit should have gone to their opponents. After handling England twice during Euro 2008 qualifiers, Slaven Bilic’s side was overconfident and abandoned the tactics that had served them so well in the previous encounters. They went toe to toe with the Brits and attacked without fear. Naturally they got caught completely out of shape on defense, gave up a goal and allowed England to play on the counter the rest of the way, setting the stage for the Theo Walcott Invitational Track Race. Walcott will not be around to torment Ukraine’s pace-challenged back line, but rest assured that if we gift England a sloppy first goal like the Croats did, the outcome will be similar. However when decent defensive-minded sides have forced England to produce attacking quality in recent years, the Three Lions have responded with barely a “meow”. And for all of our shortcomings Ukraine certainly has the ability to build a brick wall in front of our net.

Despite the uncertainty caused by injuries to the front line, it is pretty easy to guess the lineup that Capello will trot out on Wednesday. Playing at home he pretty much has to use two strikers or risk the wrath of the Wembley faithful. Playing Steven Gerrard in tandem with Wayne Rooney would seem like a good idea, except that besides the Scouser King there is no one else to occupy the left side of midfield. That leaves the not 100% fit Peter Crouch as the only remaining option up front. England’s eleven will look like this:

—————————David James———————
-Johnson——-Ferdinand—–Terry—–Ashley Cole-
-Lennon———-Lampard——-Barry——–Gerrard–
———————————–Rooney——————-
—————————-Crouch———————-

and in a perfect world Oleksiy Mykhaylichenko would counter with:

———————————Milevskiy———————-
-Nazarenko—————-Slyusar——————-Aliyev–
———————-Valyaev—–Tymoschuk—————–
-Shevchuk——-Chyhrynsky—–Mykhalyk—-Yarmash-
—————————Andriy Pyatov———————

I think a three man midfield wrecking crew is a perfect recipe for this match. With most of the play expected to be in the Ukraine half of the pitch, having three physical, high work rate players clogging up the middle will make life miserable for the English attack. Playing with two holders would give the backs more margin for error as they can close down on the ball knowing help will always be coming from the center. While they have not logged many minutes with the national team, Valentyn Slyusar and Serhiy Valyayev have enjoyed excellent club form, and their chemistry on the pitch is no small factor.

Keys To The Match:
1. Wind Up Rooney. He is by far the biggest England threat, and historically the best way to stop him is to let him hit the self-destruct button. Ukraine is certain to play a very physical style, and Rooney should be the primary target. From the very beginning, wherever he gets the ball, there should be a center back between him and the goal and a defensive midfielder charging in looking to separate his feet from his ankles. Bracket Rooney all over the pitch, knock him down, piss him off, and he is bound to fall out of the match mentally. Cynical tactics for a cynical player.
2. Gerrard Outside, Lennon Inside. Gerrard is one of the best players in the world when he is running through the center of the pitch, and merely a very good one near the touchline, so force him wide. Give him the flank, let him cross with his left, anything except allowing him to cut in on his right foot. The opposite goes for Aaron Lennon, who is at his best with his heels on the paint. Force him inside into the teeth of the defense where his poor decision making in traffic will work against him.
3. Stop The Fullbacks. In my opinion the biggest strength of this England squad is the pace and endurance of their side backs, Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson. If they are allowed to get forward and make overlapping runs in the final third, Ukraine will be in big trouble. It is up to our counterattack to keep them honest. If they get caught up field when Ukraine wins possession, we should look for Artem Milevskiy to receive the long outlet near either sideline, where he can hold up the ball waiting for help to arrive. With a central defender forced out wide to cover Milevskiy, there is going to be a lot of space for our wing players or central midfielders if they are able to beat their opponents up the pitch.

Of course, my biggest fear is that Mykhaylichenko bows to the pressure and plays the Sheva+10 model which hasn’t worked for us since before the 2006 World Cup. But with the right personnel decisions Ukraine can cause problems for England. Milevskiy deserves to start this match, and there is no argument about that from anyone who has paid attention to the top Ukrainian forwards this season. I would save Andriy Voronin for the final half hour or so, when his direct style may actually work against the tiring defenders. But a result can be had even if Ukraine fails to score, and yes, a boring nil nil draw is a result as far as I am concerned. The symbol of our national team is a stout defense, and not an out of form super striker. Hold England at Wembley, and that image would be strengthened to the point that teams would come into matches against us not expecting to score.